Our latest seat projection from the recent Find Out Now poll has revealed something particularly interesting - Reform are projected to win the Cities of London and Westminster constituency, located in the heart of Labour-held London.
The 2024 General Election results for Cities of London and Westminster were:
- Labour: 39%
- Conservatives: 32.1%
- Reform: 7%
Prior to 2024, Labour had never won this seat. It had been a Conservative stronghold since its creation in 1950 - a long time period of Tory dominance. It's not traditionally a Labour seat by any means, and it could be safe to assume that the newfound Labour support could be short-lived.
Our current projection model shows Cities of London and Westminster would be an extremely tight result, with Reform narrowly edging ahead. The model suggests a swing of 17%+ upwards for Reform, combined with associated drops for both Labour and the Conservatives, could potentially deliver this outcome.
Cities of London and Westminster constituency projection showing Reform narrowly ahead
However, it's important to note that Universal National Swing (UNS) is a blunt tool and doesn't always apply well at the constituency level. Local factors, candidate quality, and tactical voting all play significant roles in determining outcomes.
One of the challenges in assessing this prediction is the limited data we have for Reform's performance in London.
We could look to the recent Bromley Common and Holwood by-election, held on Thursday 24 July 2025. In this contest, Reform candidate Alan Cook won a council seat with 34% of the vote - this seat was originally won by the Conservatives in 2022, and at that time no Reform candidates stood.
Still, this is just one data point. The London local elections in 2026 will provide a host of new data, and give a better indication of where the support for all parties lies - and if Reform have a realistic chance of plucking this iconic constituency from the two main parties.